Bitcoin price bottom may take months to materialize, says Glassnode
The effective price is $23,340, according to Glassnode.
Bitcoin touched the $20,000 band on Monday before returning to $22,000.
Amid the collapse of the bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency markets, it is not yet certain that the market has bottomed, Glassnode notes in its latest analysis. The current phase may last between 8 and 24 months before the market really bottoms out, the report says.
With the additional decline in the price of bitcoin this Monday, June 13, the price of the main cryptocurrency even temporarily visited the level of USD 20,000.
Bitcoin closed on Sunday, June 12, the tenth weekly red candle in the last 11 weeks, with a price of USD 25,358, while this Monday it fell to USD 20,900.
A slight rally over the past few hours brings the price of bitcoin to $22,300, at the time of writing. This level represents a decrease of 53% so far this year and 68% compared to the historical maximum of the price of bitcoin, of USD 69,000, reached on November 9, 2021.
The Glassnode report draws attention to how close the price of bitcoin was last week to the effective price of bitcoin, which stands at $23,340. The effective price takes into account the price that BTC had the last time they changed hands. That is when they were sold by one of their owners and held by others.
In the following chart from Glassnode, it can be seen that the price of bitcoin was about to cross the curve of the effective price, at the close of last week. This Monday, however, the bitcoin price crossed that barrier and is still below the effective price.
As noted in the chart above, on the previous two occasions that intersection occurred, it was at the bottom of bearish times. The first of them in 2018-2019, which was more widespread than that of March 2020, when the World Health Organization declared a Covid-19 pandemic condition.
In a graph updated until this Monday the 13th, if the intersection of the two curves is noted and, in addition, two additional crosses are shown on a larger time scale, in 2012 and 2015. In all the previous opportunities that the effective price was above the spot price, the latter bottomed out before starting a bull run.
Spot price and realized price of bitcoin since 2011. Source: lookintobitcoin.com.
Bitcoin accumulation intensifies
At least until the end of last week, Glassnode detects a boost in accumulation, through the accumulation score (ATS), which is reflected on the price curve with dark blue points.
The report carries out a study of the different segments of holders and indicates that the so-called shrimp (with less than 1 BTC) and whales (more than 1,000 BTC) follow the accumulation trend that they have shown in the last two months.
Meanwhile, crabs and sharks, those holders who control between 1 and 100 BTC, have moved from a neutral position to a distribution phase, to actively participate in the sales of the last few days. This implies, according to the report, a potential decline in confidence.
“The Bitcoin market has entered a phase that coincides with the deepest and darkest bear cycles of the past,” says Glassnode in the conclusions of his report. He also states that historically, this phase has taken anywhere from 8 to 24 months, as the market finally bottoms out.
