EUR/USD

EUR/USD Bullish Momentum Ends After Collision with Resistance Confluence Zone

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EUR/USD stops at the 1.1000 zone and turns lower. Investor sentiment could determine the pair’s short-term trend in the coming sessions. In this article we present the most important technical levels to consider. The EUR/USD currency pair deepens bearish movements and accumulates two consecutive days of losses since last week after the price was rejected by technical resistance at 1.1000 … Read more

EUR/USD Analysis: Recovery seems to be corrective at the moment

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  • The EUR/USD is recovering after testing the 1.1200 level, but the bullish outlook is still unclear.
  • The disappointing data from the United States caused the dollar bulls to be in suspense for the time being.

The EUR/USD has been moving around 1.1200 since the beginning of the day, bouncing from the area in a modest way, since the psychological barrier is a level difficult to break.  However, the US currency maintains its strength, since the latest macroeconomic publications in the United States make investors doubt a turn in the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, given that consumption continues to be resilient. The central bank of the United States is scheduled to meet this week, and its decision will be key to the dollar. Meanwhile, Benoit Coeure of the ECB warned of “gloomy” indicators on the health of the global economy, and that the risks could materialize in the next meetings.

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EUR Markets Trend for 2019

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The Euro dropped from its top of 1.25 to 1.12 lows against the Dollar over 2018, and has been
trading at 1.14 in the early days of 2019. The drop in the Euro is directly associated with the
interest rate hikes by the Fed as the Euro Area interest rate has remained stable. Furthermore,
the exchange rate also reacted strongly on news regarding Brexit, with March 2019 fast
approaching and no deal reached yet.

On the macro side, the Euro Area has been quietly registering decent growth rates, estimated at around 2%, on a y/y basis. Inflation has been fluctuatingiii around the ECB target level of 2%. In 2019, growth is forecastediv to stand at 1.7%, down from the previous forecast of 1.8%, with a similar path for inflation. An increase in bond yields is expected, attributed to both the end of QE in December 2018 and the discounting of the effect of a possible ECB rate hike in late 2019. The hike, as communicatedv by the ECB in the last few meetings, is expected to take place in the third quarter of 2019.

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Theresa May could lose the Brexit vote and the market expects Europe to move

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May could lose brexit vote

Political instability in the UK is assured and will affect the British economy and the rest of the EU, experts say

The market assumes that Theresa May tomorrow will lose the vote on the plan for the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union that the premier agreed with Brussels. May had agreed to expose a plan B in three days, if the Brexit vote fails tomorrow. Experts and analysts consulted trust that the European Commission can now offer a little hand to prevent uncertainty from going further. This issue, added to the bad macro economic data from China, has caused a fall in European markets.

If the pact does not receive the approval of the Parliament, the Prime Minister will have three days to modify it, something that the experts do not see probable either, and from then on it will be the Parliament that takes control of the Brexit. This can lead to several very different scenarios: that the departure of the UK from the EU is delayed for the parties to continue negotiating (in principle the planned disconnection date is March 29); that new elections be called if the Labor Party manages to take forward a motion of no confidence against the Executive of May or the convocation of a new Brexit referendum.

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